By Eddah Waithaka
A new nationwide survey by TIFA Research exposes stark divisions among Kenyans over the credibility of past elections and growing pessimism about the fairness of the 2027 polls.
The findings highlight a crisis of confidence in the electoral system, with only 20% of citizens expressing full trust in the next vote’s integrity.
A new report reveals significant doubts among Kenyans regarding the legitimacy of recent presidential elections, with only 31% believing all three were valid, while 32% consider all illegitimate, and 37% accepting only one or two of the outcomes.
Looking ahead to the 2027 elections, half of the respondents express that they are “not confident at all” that the elections will be free and fair, in stark contrast to just 20% who feel “very confident.”
Regional opinions further highlight a divide, with trust in the electoral process highest in the Central Rift (38%) and Mt. Kenya (39%), while a striking 48% of respondents in Nyanza reject all past results, and significant skepticism also emerges in Nairobi and Lower Eastern regions.
IEBC’s Uphill Battle
As Kenya’s electoral commission (IEBC) approaches full reconstitution after a two-year vacancy, a survey reveals alarming public disengagement.
Many citizens remain unaware of the ongoing selection process for new IEBC chairperson finalists, despite the commission’s critical role in the electoral system.
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Distrust is rampant, with respondents pointing to political interference (20%), corruption (29%), and a general lack of faith in the IEBC (23%) as the top threats to election fairness.
This disengagement raises serious concerns about the public’s confidence in the upcoming electoral processes.
Legacy of Distrust
The data confirms a vicious cycle: those who doubt past elections overwhelmingly expect future ones to be flawed.
Among Kenyans who believe none of the last three elections were valid, 62% also predict misconduct in 2027. Conversely, just 6% of this group see hope for improvement.
Political Crossroads
The report warns that Kenya’s “legacy-deficit” in electoral credibility risks undermining the 2027 polls unless urgent reforms restore public trust.
As President Ruto aims for re-election amidst simmering opposition tensions, TIFA calls for closer scrutiny of key electoral issues.
They emphasize the importance of monitoring party nominations, addressing campaign finance abuses, and ensuring robust security during elections.
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